World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 
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		   WASDE-4845 August 12, 2010
 
 
 
SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2010/11 is 
increased 506,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to 
higher beginning stocks, production, and imports.  Production is 
increased 100,000 tons due to higher than expected forecast 
U.S. sugarbeet yields.  Imports are increased 185,000 tons to 
reflect lower tariff rate quota (TRQ) shortfall and the announced 
refined specialty sugar quota.  Sugar use is increased 200,000 
tons in line with the increase for 2009/10.

For 2009/10, U.S. supplies are increased 341,000 tons, due to 
higher beginning stocks, production, and imports.  Beginning 
stocks are increased 35,000 tons due to revisions in Sweetener 
Market Data.  Cane sugar production is increased 6,000 tons 
based on processor reports.  Imports are increased 300,000 
tons: 50,000 tons less TRQ shortfall, 50,000 tons more re-export 
imports, and 200,000 tons from Mexico and high-tier imports.  
These import increases are driven by tight U.S. supplies.  Total 
use is increased 120,000 tons, reflecting revised estimates in 
Sweetener Market Data.  Ending stocks are increased 221,000 
tons.

For Mexico, 2010/11 ending stocks are lowered 95,000 metric 
tons, raw value, due to lower beginning stocks.  Mexico=s 
2009/10 production is decreased slightly while exports are 
increased 90,000 tons; sugar use is unchanged.

			WASDE-485-16                                   
		U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
======================================================================
                        :           :          :  2010/11 Projection
      Item              : 2008/09   : 2009/10  :======================
                        :           :   Est.   :   July      August
======================================================================
                        :           1,000 short tons, raw value
                    :
Beginning stocks        :   1,664       1,534      1,268      1,489 
Production 2/           :   7,532       7,811      8,235      8,335   
  Beet sugar            :   4,214       4,450      4,710      4,810   
  Cane sugar            :   3,318       3,361      3,525      3,525    
   Florida              :   1,577       1,638      1,785      1,785   
   Hawaii               :     192         147        135        135   
   Louisiana            :   1,397       1,465      1,465      1,465   
   Texas                :     152         111        140        140 
Imports                 :   3,082       3,029      2,084      2,269    
  TRQ 3/                :   1,370       1,874      1,224      1,409   
  Other program 4/      :     308         450        300        300  
  Other 5/              :   1,404         705        560        560   
    Mexico              :   1,402         530        550        550   
     Total supply       :  12,278      12,374     11,587     12,093   
                        :
Exports                 :     136         200        150        150  
Deliveries              :  10,608      10,685     10,485     10,685    
  Food 6/               :  10,442      10,475     10,300     10,500   
  Other 7/              :     166         210        185        185   
Miscellaneous           :       0           0          0          0    
     Total use          :  10,744      10,885     10,635     10,835  
Ending stocks           :   1,534       1,489        952      1,258            
                        :
Stocks to use ratio     :    14.3        13.7        9.0       11.6   
======================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1.  Includes Puerto Rico.  Historical data are from FSA, 
"Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ 
Production projections for 2010/11 are based on Crop Production, trend recovery rates, and
processor projections where appropriate.  3/ For 2010/11, includes shortfall of 60,000 tons.
4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs.  5/ For 2008/09, other
high-tier (0) and other (0).  For 2009/10, other high-tier (175) and other (0).  For 2010/11,
other high-tier (10) and other (0). 6/Combines SMD deliveries for domestic human food use, 
SMD miscellaneous uses, and the difference between SMD imports and WASDE imports.  7/ Transfers 
to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed.

     Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Imports 1/
==========================================================================
            :               Supply            :        Use       :             
   Fiscal   :====================================================: Ending
    year    : Beginning : Production: Imports : Domestic :Exports: stocks
            :  stocks   :           :         :    2/    :       :
==========================================================================
                           1,000 metric tons, raw value
Sugar
2009/10 est.
        Jul        488        5,120      820       5,170      390      868
        Aug        488        5,115      820       5,170      480      773
2010/11 proj.
        Jul        868        5,450      150       4,950      500    1,018
        Aug        773        5,450      150       4,950      500      923
==========================================================================
1/ U.S. HFCS exports to Mexico (metric tons, dry-weight basis): Oct-Sep 2008/09 = 302,844; 
Oct-Jun 2008/09 = 192,608; Oct-Jun 2009/10 = 672,357.  Footnote source: U.S. Census Bureau.  
2/Includes domestic consumption and Mexico's products export program (IMMEX).


 
 
For More information on the monthly WASDE report visit the USDA's Office of Chief Economist
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/